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Table 2 Hypothetical example of probabilistic interpretation of lay-reported indicators of morbidity

From: A probabilistic method to estimate the burden of maternal morbidity in resource-poor settings: preliminary development and evaluation

Indicator Probability of selected causes of death
Near-miss morbidity Cause 1 Cause 2 Cause 3 Cause 4
Unconditional probability 0.15 0.05 0.10 0.30 0.40
Indicator 1 0.93 0.01 0.01 0.44 0.36
Indicator 2 0.94 0.01 0.02 0.48 0.40
Indicator 3 0.92 0.02 0.01 0.69 0.23
  1. The example shows how each reported indicator in this single case affects the cause probability. In this case, the conclusion is an overall likelihood of morbidity of 92%, with Cause 3 being the most likely cause, with a likelihood of 69%.