Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001

Table 1 Influenza-associated excess mortality per 100,000 population in West Germany (1984/85–1989/90) and united Germany (1990/91–2000/01), by method of estimation

	Cyclical Regression		Relative Mortality Distribution
Influenza season	Crude estimate^a	conservative^b	Crude estimate^a	conservative^b
1984 / 85^c	17.9	3.2	22.0	8.7
1985 / 86^c	25.4	12.9	23.4	13.9
1986 / 87^c	9.3	1.8	2.9	0.0
1987 / 88^c	2.2	0.0	3.5	0.0
1988 / 89^c	10.3	3.9	5.9	0.0
1989 / 90^c	35.7	17.0	30.8	16.3
1990 / 91	7.4 / 5.9 ^d	1.5 / 0 ^d	4.6	0.1
1991 / 92	21.8 / 19.6 ^d	12.6 / 11.1 ^d	15.8	4.2
1992 / 93	21.2 / 21.4 ^d	11.2 / 11.2 ^d	18.9	12.3
1993 / 94	16.5 / 16.6 ^d	9.0 / 8.8 ^d	7.8	2.8
1994 / 95	9.0 / 11.7 ^d	1.2 / 2.4 ^d	9.7	3.4
1995 / 96	44.2	25.8	40.6	26.1
1996 7 97	8.0	1.0	15.0	5.5
1997 / 98	10.9	1.2	11.3	2.6
1998 / 99	26.9	15.4	26.7	19.3
1999 / 2000	12.9	5.5	19.3	9.6
2000 / 01	12.7	2.0	13.5	7.0
1984/85–1994/95	176.7	74.3	145.2	61.6
1990/91–2000/01	190.9	84.4	183.2	92.9
1984/85–2000/01	292.3 / 291.6	125.2 / 123.2	271.7	131.8

^a observed minus expected mortality
^b observed minus upper 90%confidence limit of expected mortality
^c West German excess mortality only
^d For cyclical regression two models were built, one for the time period 1984/85–1994/95 and one for 1990/91–2000/01, resulting in two estimates for the seasons 1990/91–1994/95

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