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Table 1 Influenza-associated excess mortality per 100,000 population in West Germany (1984/85–1989/90) and united Germany (1990/91–2000/01), by method of estimation

From: Influenza associated excess mortality in Germany, 1985 – 2001

  Cyclical Regression Relative Mortality Distribution
Influenza season Crude estimatea conservativeb Crude estimatea conservativeb
1984 / 85c 17.9 3.2 22.0 8.7
1985 / 86c 25.4 12.9 23.4 13.9
1986 / 87c 9.3 1.8 2.9 0.0
1987 / 88c 2.2 0.0 3.5 0.0
1988 / 89c 10.3 3.9 5.9 0.0
1989 / 90c 35.7 17.0 30.8 16.3
1990 / 91 7.4 / 5.9 d 1.5 / 0 d 4.6 0.1
1991 / 92 21.8 / 19.6 d 12.6 / 11.1 d 15.8 4.2
1992 / 93 21.2 / 21.4 d 11.2 / 11.2 d 18.9 12.3
1993 / 94 16.5 / 16.6 d 9.0 / 8.8 d 7.8 2.8
1994 / 95 9.0 / 11.7 d 1.2 / 2.4 d 9.7 3.4
1995 / 96 44.2 25.8 40.6 26.1
1996 7 97 8.0 1.0 15.0 5.5
1997 / 98 10.9 1.2 11.3 2.6
1998 / 99 26.9 15.4 26.7 19.3
1999 / 2000 12.9 5.5 19.3 9.6
2000 / 01 12.7 2.0 13.5 7.0
1984/85–1994/95 176.7 74.3 145.2 61.6
1990/91–2000/01 190.9 84.4 183.2 92.9
1984/85–2000/01 292.3 / 291.6 125.2 / 123.2 271.7 131.8
  1. a observed minus expected mortality
  2. b observed minus upper 90%confidence limit of expected mortality
  3. c West German excess mortality only
  4. d For cyclical regression two models were built, one for the time period 1984/85–1994/95 and one for 1990/91–2000/01, resulting in two estimates for the seasons 1990/91–1994/95