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Table 3 Predictive performance of the disease risk score (DRS) models in the warfarin versus dabigatran historical and concurrent cohorts

From: Dimension reduction and shrinkage methods for high dimensional disease risk scores in historical data

Num. Model data component and dimension reduction/shrinkage method EPVb Historical cohort Concurrent cohort
Warfarin initiators Warfarin initiators Dabigatran initiators
c-stat 95 % CI x-valid. c-stat c-stat 95 % CI HL (P value) c-stat 95 % CI HL (P value)
1 Demo (age + sex) 127.0 0.58 0.55, 0.62 0.59 0.59 0.54, 0.63 2.7 (0.95) 0.68 0.61, 0.75 28.1 (<0.01)
2 Demo + scorea 84.7 0.61 0.57, 0.64 0.60 0.62 0.57, 0.67 5.6 (0.69) 0.70 0.63, 0.77 24.6 (<0.01)
3 Demo + score + predef. 16.9 0.64 0.60, 0.67 0.61 0.61 0.56, 0.66 7.5 (0.48) 0.69 0.63, 0.76 23.0 (<0.01)
4 Demo + cov500 0.5 0.86 0.84, 0.89 0.61 0.54 0.49, 0.60 384 (<0.01) 0.56 0.48, 0.64 126 (<0.01)
5 Demo + PCA(10) 21.2 0.67 0.64, 0.71 0.65 0.66 0.61, 0.71 5.2 (0.73) 0.68 0.61, 0.75 27.0 (<0.01)
6 Demo + PCA(30) 7.9 0.69 0.65, 0.72 0.63 0.63 0.59, 0.68 10.2 (0.25) 0.64 0.56, 0.72 18.5 (0.02)
7 Demo + score + PCA(10) 19.5 0.67 0.64, 0.71 0.64 0.64 0.59, 0.69 9.8 (0.28) 0.67 0.60, 0.73 18.1 (0.02)
8 Demo + score + PCA(30) 7.7 0.69 0.65, 0.72 0.63 0.62 0.57, 0.67 10.1 (0.26) 0.64 0.56, 0.72 17.6 (0.02)
9 Demo + predef. + score + PCA(10) 10.2 0.69 0.66, 0.72 0.64 0.64 0.59, 0.69 16.0 (0.04) 0.66 0.59, 0.73 20.3 (0.01)
10 Demo + predef. + score + PCA(30) 5.6 0.71 0.67, 0.74 0.63 0.63 0.58, 0.68 21.1 (0.01) 0.66 0.59, 0.73 18.9 (0.02)
11 Ridge (Demo + predef. + score + cov500) 0.5 0.83 0.81, 0.86 0.69 0.63 0.59, 0.68 12.3 (0.14) 0.63 0.55, 0.71 19.5 (0.01)
12 Ridge (Demo + predef. + score + PCA(30)) 5.6 0.71 0.68, 0.74 0.65 0.64 0.58, 0.68 14.9 (0.06) 0.67 0.59, 0.75 25.5 (<0.01)
13 Lasso (Demo + predef. + score + cov500) 0.5 0.72 0.69, 0.75 0.63 0.64 0.59, 0.68 10.8 (0.21) 0.66 0.59, 0.73 27.7 (<0.01)
14 Lasso (Demo + predef. + score + PCA(30)) 5.6 0.70 0.67, 0.73 0.65 0.65 0.61, 0.70 10.7 (0.22) 0.67 0.59, 0.74 19.5 (0.01)
  1. CI confidence interval, Demo demographic variables, HL Hosmer–Lemeshow test statistics, Num. model number, predef. predefined variables, PCA(10) top 10 components from principal component analysis, PCA(30) top 30 components from principal component analysis, c-stat c-statistics, x-valid. 10-fold cross-validated
  2. aScore = HAS-BLED score [23]
  3. bEvent per variable: ratio between the number of outcomes and number of variables included in the DRS model
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Emerging Themes in Epidemiology

ISSN: 1742-7622