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Fig. 2 | Emerging Themes in Epidemiology

Fig. 2

From: Teaching: confidence, prediction and tolerance intervals in scientific practice: a tutorial on binary variables

Fig. 2

Simulation for Bayesian prediction intervals. Illustration of the meaning of \((1-\alpha = 0.95)\) prediction intervals for the number of events of interest based on 100 samples. A single sample is based on \(n=20\) observations generated from a true Be(0.5) distribution, and the PI predicts the number of events in a future sample of size \(m=50\). The prediction intervals, which do not cover the number of independently simulated events in \(m=50\) experiments out of iid Be(0.5), are coloured red (here, 8 out of 100)

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